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Infrastructure: More good news than bad

April 19, 2010 16:07 IST

What's interesting is that during the 10th Plan, about 25 per cent of the total investment in infrastructure came from the private sector, says Vinayak Chatterjee.

The daylong infrastructure conference in the Capital's Vigyan Bhawan on March 23, organised by the government, was a grand success by all counts. Several senior ministers spoke, key ministries presented their plans and the audience engaged in lively discussions in the conference that was inaugurated by the prime minister.

More importantly, the occasion saw the unveiling of the Planning Commission's mid-term appraisal of investment in infrastructure in the 11th Five Year Plan Period (2007-12).

First the good news:

Let us now take a look at the achievements sectorally. The bad news starts flowing in on closer examination of the sectoral break-up.

Even with this revised target, 67 per cent is left to be achieved in the last three years of the Plan period. With all the known delays, it would not be too much of a shock on March 31, 2012 to see that the real achievement is only about 65 per cent. It is probably no surprise that Rakesh Mohan has been appointed to head a committee of national importance to look into this area.

While it is understood that not all the outlay is for generation, a slippage of 37 per cent should broadly suggest a final investment of around Rs 4.2 lakh crore (Rs 4.2 trillion) against the stated 99 per cent achievement figure of Rs 6.59 lakh crore (Rs 6.59 trillion).

If we further remove the unexpected bonanza of another Rs 0.87 lakh crore (Rs 0.87 trillion) on account of telecom, the achievement is further reduced to Rs 15.37 lakh crore (Rs 15.37  trillion) or 74 per cent. Then it is not the 99 per cent achievement of the magical $500 billion number, but is closer to $370 billion.

ANALYSING THE ACHIEVEMENT
Mid-term appraisal of 11th Plan (2007-2012) infrastructure investments
  Rs lakh crore %
Sector 11th Plan projection 11th Plan revised
 projections in March, 2010
Achievement
expected (%)
Electricity 6.67 6.59 99
Roads and Bridges 3.14 2.79 89
Telecom 2.58 3.45 134
Railways 2.62 2.01 77
Irrigation 2.53 2.46 97
Water Supply
and Sanitation
1.44 1.12 78
Ports 0.88 0.4 45
Airports 0.31 0.36 116
Storage 0.22 0.09 41
Oil and Gas Pipelines 0.17 1.27 747
Total 20.56 20.54 99.9
Reworking achievement Reduction (Rs lakh crore)
Transportation and Logistics with 65% achievement instead of 77% 0.83
Electricity sector 2.39
Inclusion of data on investment in oil pipelines – not part of Projections 1.08
Total 4.3

Kahlil Gibran said, "The significance of a man is not in what he attains, but rather what he longs to attain." In that spirit, if there are a few more items, like oil pipelines, that can be added to the list by March 31, 2012, who knows India may well and truly hit the $500 billion number and march on to the $1,000 billion number for the 12th Plan!

The author is chairman of Feedback Ventures. He is also the chairman of  the Confederation of Indian Industry's National Council on Infrastructure, Views expressed are personal.

Vinayak Chatterjee
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