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Indo-US ties in a tangle

Aditi Phadnis

On Tuesday, the Indian Cabinet approved the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, which is part of the UN Convention on Climate Change. By itself, this was an unremarkable event.

But conspiracy theorists read some significance into the fact that India approved the ratification even though technically, it didn't have to - the US has flatly refused to ratify the Protocol until China and India are on board, seemingly under the belief that India will not agree to join. Until countries that contribute 55 per cent of the emission that is causing the depletion of the ozone layer sign the convention, it does not become valid. Only those causing 36 per cent of the emission have signed up so far.

So India could have waited. Conservationists were a little surprised by the news that the Protocol had been signed also because thus far, India has been following the US line on climate change. In 2000, India and the US agreed, in a joint statement, that they would urge countries all over the world to implement the Clean Development Mechanism which encourages unilateralism on the issue of climate change and lets the US off the hook, given its responsibility in the depletion of the ozone layer (the US is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases).

Now that India has agreed to ratify the Protocol, the question being asked is: is this yet another marker in Indo-US relations? Is India distancing itself from the US on yet another issue? There has been some significant movement in Indo-US relations in the last month.

A month after US secretary of state, Colin Powell, observed that India needed international monitors to prove it was conducting free and fair elections in Kashmir, US Deputy secretary of state, Richard Armitage, will arrive in New Delhi on August 23 to survey the India-Pakistan relations roadmap.

Although India has maintained that Indo-US ties remain as warm as before, Colin Powell was able to meet the prime minister only after considerable exertion by the US State department because Vajpa-ee was reluctant to meet him. Powell's meeting with L K Advani was rescheduled twice at the request of the US embassy. When it finally did take place, Powell, who was carrying a roadmap to restart dialogue between India and Pakistan was told in no uncertain terms that India was not ready to talk to Pakistan just yet.

India pointedly took no view of the fact that Powell had held a press conference in which he spelt out the "election monitors" formulation before his meeting with senior Indian leaders, especially as this proposition was not even mentioned, let alone discussed, by Powell at any of his interactions.

There are certain curious facts about his visit (and after) that have escaped attention and comment. Since the NDA government came to power, Powell was the first senior US leader to have come to India and address a press conference without the Indian foreign minister present by his side.

During his last such public engagement, Powell and then-Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh agreed to disagree on several issues, including whether Pakistan was taking adequate steps to stop cross-border infiltration and whether Kashmir should be "an" issue or "the" issue in India-Pakistan relations. On that occasion, Jaswant Singh had been on hand and had rebutted Powell's statement there and then in his urbane, polite drawl.

That Yashwant Sinha decided to stay aloof and distance himself from a joint press opportunity suggests a change in Indian style, possibly even substance.

You could argue that Sinha, relatively new to his job, wanted more time to learn the ropes before letting himself be thrown to the media wolves. However, a few days after the Powell visit was the state visit of French foreign minister Dominique Villepin. Sinha's inexperience posed no difficulty here as both had a joint press opportunity. This has left the US bureaucracy a little confused, to say the least.

If India is making things difficult for the US, it is certainly making no secret of it. France is one of the nations that has differed on the US's National Missile Defence plan. It has questioned the foundations of the assertion that the world today is unipolar. US Assistant Secretary of State, Christina Rocca, got no appointments with any high-ranking Indian official. Mandarins at the State Department are hoping that Richard Armitage will not have to meet the same fate.

The official Indian position is that the security dialogue with the US has been upgraded after the Powell visit and there are several other positive features about the visit. But the US is a little jittery about the unpredictability that is suddenly featuring in Indo-US relations. They need to be reassured that it is just a phase.

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