"We expect the fourth-quarter to register a real GDP growth of 7.4 per cent. Fiscal 2008-09 will thus end with a growth of 7.4 per cent," the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said.
The economic think-tank, however, expects the GDP for the third quarter of FY'09 to stay at around 6.7 per cent, substantially lower than the robust 7.8 per cent clocked during the previous two quarters.
Over the past two months, the Reserve Bank and Centre together have partially repaired the damages caused by the break-down of the international financial markets, the report said, adding "liquidity was pumped in and interest rates were reduced by the RBI."
These measures are expected to help the economy recover from the blues it suffered in Q3 of the current fiscal, the report said, adding "we expect the third-quarter to record a real GDP growth of 6.7 per cent."
Attributing the reverses in the Q3 to the near break-down of the financial system, CMIE said, "we expect this hit to gradually recover during the fourth-quarter of the year and consequently these sectors recovering partially in the last quarter."
The collapse of the global financial markets in October dried up international finance trade, leading to a fall in exports, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and cargo movement, the report said.
The deterioration of the economy in the third quarter is almost entire and caused due to the global liquidity crisis, CMIE said.
