HOME | NEWS | ELECTIONS '98 | REPORT |
February 12, 1998
NEWS
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CMS-Asianet poll gives BJP 230-240 seats, Sonia powers Congress to 155With just three days to go for the first leg of polling, there is no wave in voting intentions either way in this election despite considerable shift in voting intentions. Despite more than 9.6 per cent swing in the popular vote over 1996, a working majority eludes the BJP and its allies in this election to the 12th Lok Sabha. Despite her late and surprise entry, the Sonia Gandhi effect has dashed the BJP's hopes. These are the findings of an opinion poll conducted by the independent Centre for Media Studies for the Asianet television channel in the first week of February (4th to 7th). The BJP and its allies -- All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Akali Dal, Biju Janata Dal, Haryana Vikas Party, Lok Shakti, Samata Party, Shiv Sena, Telugu Desam Party-Lakshmi Parvati, Trinamool Congress -- are likely to get between 230 and 240 seats, according to this latest pre-poll survey. The Congress and its allies may have a tally of between 145 and 155 seats with 1.9 per cent positive swings. The biggest loser will be the United Front, which may lose 72 to 82 seats with a negative swing of 11.2 per cent over its 1996 share, according to the Asianet-CMS pre-poll survey. In this survey, CMS researchers individually interviewed 3,325 voters spread over 22 Lok Sabha constituencies in four regions of the country. The 11 states include Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. Each of these 22 Lok Sabha constituencies was chosen and assumed representative of a cluster of constituencies reflecting similar electoral trends/voting behaviour in the recent past. This is the fourth pre-poll survey conducted by the CMS since the dissolution of the Lok Sabha in the first week of December 1997. Despite certain improvement in the number of seats projected for the BJP and its allies and also the Congress in the Asianet-CMS poll since the Frontline-CMS poll at the end of January, there is no significant difference in the projection of the overall outcome of the Lok Sabha election. According to the survey, it will be a hung Parliament once again, but with a clear advantage to the BJP. On the eve of the dissolution of the 11th Lok Sabha, the CMS was the first agency to conduct a survey and found it would be a hung House again. With no new support coming from any party as of now, the BJP would still be short of 30 seats for a clear, simple majority. No solution seems to be in sight to the likely impasse in March. At the end of the first week of February, the BJP had improved its position in vote intentions -- marginally in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. However, it is still within the 200-seat tally. The Congress also made further gains last week in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, two states on which Sonia Gandhi has been concentrating in her campaigns. A fallout of the result of this election could be the stability of the Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh state governments. The BJP has gained one percentage point in the North and South. In the West it has made a gain of 0.6 percentage points since the last week of January. For the BJP, the maximum gain of 21 and 22 seats (over 1996) is expected from the East and South, and a gain of five seats in Uttar Pradesh and seven in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The Congress, on the other hand, has gained in the South (1.1 percentage points) and in the East (0.5 percentage points). For the Congress the gain since the CMS survey in the last week of January would be three seats in Orissa and West Bengal in the East, and six seats in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka in the South. For the United Front, losses continue to be mostly in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa and Karnataka. With 6 per cent undecided voters as of the first week of February and a staggered three-phased poll schedule over a two-week period and the competitiveness in the contests being what it is, a difference of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points in vote share between now and the next fortnight at the regional level could make all the difference in the fortunes of the two key contenders. Other findings of the Asianet-CMS poll include:
*The BJP includes the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Akali Dal, Biju Janata Dal, Haryana Vikas Party, Lok Shakti, Samata Party, Shiv Sena, Telugu Desam Party-Lakshmi Parvati, Trinamool Congress. **The Congress includes the Bahujan Samaj Party in Punjab and the Samajwadi Party, Republican Party of India in Maharashtra. ***The UF includes the Asom Gana Parishad, the DMK, the Janata Dal, the Left Front, the Samajwadi Party, the Tamil Maanila Congress and the TDP. ****Others include the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Rashtriya Janata Party.
|