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The mini Kargil of the east

The recent clash between Indian Border Security Force jawans and men from the Bangladesh Rifles has evoked angry reactions in India.

The scale of Bangladesh's action -- nearly three battalions worth of force took part in the operation-- obviously signifies design and planning. Conversely, it also shows that the BSF was not alert and was caught off-guard. The subsequent reaction, where the army was kept out of the picture, may well have been a deliberate move on the part of the government not to escalate the situation.

But there is no gainsaying the fact that there was little co-ordination between the armed forces and the BSF. The border clash had all the hallmarks of a 'Mini Kargil'. Like on the cease-fire line in Kashmir, the Indian State apparatus failed to 'anticipate' the events, at both the tactical and strategic levels.

Like at Kargil, the Bangladesh border fracas was not so much the failure of 'intelligence' as failure of the 'assessment of intelligence.' In that sense the buck stops at the door of the national security advisor and national security advisory board! When you have arm-chair strategists, pen-pushers and seniority based promotees dominating these august bodies, this is only to be expected.

But what ought to scare every Indian, it certainly scares me, is the fact that we may well be faced with a nuclear Kargil one of these days! The approach to national security in India is still amateurish, non-professional and hamstrung with departmental jealousies, individual egos and lack of talent at the top.

It is true that strategic genius is rare. In the last 53 years, amongst the military, there have been just a handful generals, a Thimmaya, Thorat, Manekshaw, Bhagat, Vas and Sunderji. At a tactical level, there was probably just one, Lt Gen Sagat Singh. But the point is that most nations make full use of the available genius. The Indian system has obviously failed on this count. It seems that Indian talent has to emigrate to flourish.

Warning signals

About the Bangladesh issue, there were enough warning signs. There was a concerted campaign in Bangladesh by Islamists and Jihadist forces against Sheikh Hasina's secular and India friendly government. The riots and killing of Hindus during the Bengali New Year celebrations was a clear warning. The Hrithik Roshan episode in Nepal and the engineered anti-Indian riots showed in what direction the sick Pakistani minds were working. About a month ago, Shiekh Hasina's government had issued orders to undo a wrong perpetrated since 1965! The property of Hindus confiscated then, was being returned to rightful owners.

Bangladesh has always had a strong fanatical and pro-Muslim league element among the clergy. During the Second World War, the then Premier of Bengal, H S Suhrawardy, collaborated with the British in destroying the food stocks in 1943, causing the great Bengal famine, in which over 15 lakh people (largely Muslims) died of starvation.

It is a tribute to the hold of the clergy that despite this, support for Pakistan was the strongest. The first and the most serious communal riots in the countryside took place in Noakhali in October 1946 in response to Jinnah's call for 'Direct Action'. During the 1971 crackdown by Pakistani army, according to a Pakistani account (General Fazal Muqim and Gul Hasan), corroborated by the American counsel general in Dhaka, as many as 300,000 civilians were killed. Yet, in less than a few years time, there were elements in the Bangladeshi establishment that were openly pro-Pakistan.

The ghastly manner in which a few junior officers of the Bangladesh army marched into a wedding reception and killed the entire family of Sheikh Mujiboor Rehman in 1975, ought not to be forgotten. Democracy in Bangladesh is as fragile as it is in Pakistan.

Tangil, near Dhaka, is the headquarters of the 'Tablig' movement of Islamic revival. At their gatherings, more people collect than those who go on Haj to Mecca.

Given the background of strong elements of fundamentalism being present, the events in Nepal and events in Bangladesh itself, should have all pointed towards some form of mischief by 'rogue' and Jihadist elements. The red alert and extra precautions ought to have been ordered six months earlier, and not now, after the event.

What is to be done now?

Any military action against the BD Rifles now will play into the hands of anti-Indian forces, who will exploit it to the hilt in the elections due in a few months. The right approach will be to defuse the situation and restore calm on the border and expose the rogue elements in the Bangladesh army (the BD Rifles are officered by the army).

But this alone is neither sufficient nor does it meet the ends of justice! Sixteen BSF jawans have lost their lives in this affair. To deal with this kind of situation will need a national resolve to punish the guilty, wherever they are!

The likelihood is that the Hindu Taleban like the Bajrang Dal and assorted groups will take to the streets in empty gestures. India could well take a leaf out of the Israeli and American book and launch a hunt for all fugitives from justice. But then that list should begin with Dawood Ibrahim and include Azhar Mehmood and Mast Gul, most of whom are hiding in Pakistan or the Middle East.

This is a war against terrorism and a war that even the ordinary citizens have to fight. Readiness to die is part of this conflict. But the kind of tamasha shown by the relatives of the hijacked IC- 814 makes one wonder whether the Indians have the guts to fight this war. If we do not have perseverance and national spirit, we are condemned to suffer these kind of pin-pricks for ever.

The next Jihadist target is likely to be the Maladives. There again I suppose our soft state will react after the event.