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North-east could become
another Gujarat

Rifat Jawaid in Calcutta

Geological Survey of India director general K Krishnanunni warned Friday that north-east India could experience an earthquake equally devastating as in Gujarat.

Krishnanunni said, at a news conference at the GSI's Calcutta office, that an earthquake measuring even 4 on the Richter Scale would mean disaster of catastrophic proportions in the north-east.

Adding that north-eastern states, with Myanmar and a part of the Arakan belt, fell in seismic zone 5 -- the most earthquake-prone in scientific terms -- he said that the GSI had begun building infrastructure in the region to deal with any eventuality.

"Knowing the region's susceptibility to earthquakes, the GSI had planned to install a micro-earthquake recorder there. But the earthquake in Gujarat and Kutch forced us to shift our focus from the north-east to the devastated areas. We have now placed 14 micro-earthquake recorders in the affected areas of Gujarat, with one each having been installed in Gandhinagar, Morvi, Gandhidham and Bachau," Krishnanunni added.

The GSI DG admitted that India needed to more micro-earthquake recorders to monitor active faults across the highly active seismic zone, such as western India, the north Indian Himalayan belt and the north-east.

He, however, added that efforts were on to acquire more such devices from abroad.

On the GSI's preparedness in the north-east, Krishnanunni said that he had postponed the installation of micro-earthquake recorders there by three months in view of the Gujarat earthquake.

"There are over 300 faults in north-eastern states. We have to put the entire network in place to be absolutely prepared to avoid a Gujarat-like situation repeat. But, our first priority is to concentrate on the earthquake-hit areas of Gujarat," he remarked.

Krishnanunni, who served for a considerable period in the north-east, expressed concern over the rampant flouting of building codes in Aizawl. He said the magnitude of disaster in the wake of the earthquake would be 'simply unfathomable'.

"Of late, there has been a significant mushrooming of high-rises in Aizawl. The number of newly-constructed buildings, defying guidelines, is exceedingly high in proportion to the city's area. All we can do is to advice the state government. The decision to enforce regulations is the government's prerogative," he said.

Krishnanunni found nothing wrong in the manifest disparity in readings of the earthquake's magnitude, observed by the Indian Meteorological Department and the US Geological Centre. He said that the confusion was primarily because different experts took readings, gauging from different waves of the earthquake.

"For example, the Jabalpur observatory analysed its reading from surface waves, while IMD studied primary and secondary waves to measure the earthquake's intensity. That Jabalpur's reading (7.6) was pretty close to the US (7.9) is merely because both used the MS method. However, irrespective of conflicting readings, the recent earthquake in Gujarat is the worst in living memory," Krishnanunni observed.

On the scientists' inability to forecast earthquakes, he said that while it was possible to predict the intensity, seismologists had yet to invent technology to predict its timing. He added that the devastation in Gujarat was not unpredictable, arguing that one could easily forecast it in terms of decades.

"But predicting in terms of decades is no prediction. I am told that the Chinese used animals' behaviour to know the timing of the occurrence of an earthquake, but I don't feel one can predict earthquakes using such methods. In Japan and the US, experts are busy correlating data to achieve success in predicting earthquakes, but they have not made any breakthrough," he said.

On whether Calcutta fell in the dangerous seismic zone, he said that while a large swathe of north Bengal was prone to earthquakes, the capital was relatively safe. However, Krishnanunni pointed out that in the wake of an earthquake in the north-east, Calcutta too would experience mild tremors.

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