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The BJP's real opposition

By which I mean, talking of reviving the glory of Indian tradition, restoring it to its original glory etc is all fine, it will find takers left, right and centre. But when you get carried away and start criticising basic concepts like a honeymoon, when you start saying things like banning New Year Eve revelry because it doesn't fit in with your concept of what nationhood is all about, it is time then for the puja bells to stop ringing and for alarm bells to go off...

This new criticism of what Indians of all hues have been doing for centuries is a little puzzling. One reason could be that the brains pool at the RSS HQ has decided that being middle class, at least its pursuits, is anti-Indian. Which, to me at least, flies in the face of conventional psephological wisdom that dictates that the middle class exerts an influence on the electoral system that is inversely proportionate to its numbers.

And even the politicians realise it. Which is why they pay obeisance to middle class concerns come election time, after riding roughshod over this segment during their term in office. Rajiv Gandhi lost his moral authority to govern once the middle class lost its faith in his probity, and propped up V P Singh instead. The Thakur lost his right to rule once he alienated the middle class with his Mandal mania. And the BJP could not get within reach of federal power till the middle class had got over its revulsion of the Babri Masjid demolition.

So why is the RSS set on estranging the middle class from the BJP, when it knows political suicide lies in that direction?

The answer to that question, is the single most significant development of the year gone by.

One pointer is the BJP's growing genuflection before Prime Minister A B Vajpayee who, despite his frequent course corrections, is still perceived as a moderate. Bangaru Laxman is doing little but back the prime minister through thick and thin -- and the Vajpayee line may sound wonderful for the international press but it is not doing anything for the Sangh Parivar's traditional votebank. Ergo, the RSS has chosen to jettison non-playing captain Lord Krishna's role in the Mahabharat and has opted instead to be proactive like Bhishma Pitamaha.

At normal times, this is a course fraught with peril. The Congress party, for instance, never set terms for its prime minister, or even appeared to disagree with its government's views. The best that can be said about the BJP-RSS tango, then, is that this is different from what we have seen before.

What is helping the two in their interesting duet is that the Opposition is in a terrible disarray. Whenever Sonia Gandhi decides to show some spunk, a little rattle from the cupboard hiding the Bofors skeleton sends her scurrying to her sphinx pose. Even if she were to seize the day, as it were, there are not many takers for her leadership among her compatriots, not so long as Mulayam is opposing her.

Mulayam himself is not going to amount to much, not when the middle class and the region beyond the Vindhyas turn their back on him. The PM may be hobbling along, but the only credible opposition that he faces at the moment is from the RSS and its various outfits.

And that, as should be obvious by now, is all part of the family. The saffron family.

In that sense, the prime minister's recent declaration on Ayodhya, which raised the hackles of so many of his allies, was a test-balloon, and indicates that the ground rules are being prepared for the next general election, whenever they are held. Not just the nation, not just the other political parties, even the BJP would like nothing better than to have elections only when they are due, and not precipitate them when they are not necessary.

Of course, the RSS cannot be entirely happy at the way the NDA government has shaped up, and is sure to have strong views on the effect the middle course is having on its support base. So the recourse to attacking middle class phenomenon.

In the days ahead, there could be many more such 'controversies' as new targets are unearthed. The Kumbh Mela itself would provide plenty of fresh fodder, especially the Dharma Sansad which is expected to tell the government where it can get off when it comes to Ayodhya.

But the name of the game is never to be confused with anything else: it was, it is and will be nothing more than shadow-boxing. Just as the PM says one thing today, denies it tomorrow, and clarifies his denial on the third, in his effort to keep everyone happy, so will the RSS tie itself into knots over pleasing its core voters whose disillusionment it can sense.

The government's fall will come about not from these games which even the allies have seen through for what they are. For this government to fall, there will have to be a coalescence of the Opposition parties -- which has not happened so far, and doesn't seem likely to happen in the near future either.

In another sense, there is another game that is being played out there. Only, in this case, it is: what will happen first, the government's fall, or the Opposition's unity?

Saisuresh Sivaswamy