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Congress gets poll-axed

However, old habits die hard. And so it is that Sonia Gandhi and her troops are already thinking in terms of a mid-term poll. The difference is that they are not dreaming about the government falling under the weight of its own contradictions (as was the fate of the United Front ministries). Instead, the Congress boss is scared that the Bharatiya Janata Party might try to take advantage of a sudden burst in popularity.

This is strange, especially given that some opinion polls hold that the government has actually lost some of its popularity since the last general election. So what exactly does the Congress believe to be in the pipeline that could turn the tide?

The first thing that the Congress fears is an agreement over Jammu & Kashmir with Pakistan. Mark that I do not write of a 'solution', which is highly improbable, but merely of an agreement. This is within the realms of possibility, even if the hawks in both countries will try to derail any such agreement. Sonia Gandhi at any rate thinks it could be on the cards.

The second issue troubling the leadership in 10, Janpath, is a legal solution to the dispute in Ayodhya. If you ask me, an agreement between India and Pakistan would be easier to negotiate than this centuries-old problem! As above, however, the Congress feels that it is possible that this dispute could be settled relatively amicably.

The third issue is the relationship between India and China. Frankly, this is the most realistic theory of the lot so far. There has been a gradual, almost imperceptible, thaw between the two largest nations in Asia. But I am not sure why the Congress boss would consider this much of a vote-catcher. It is not as if there would be any dramatic shift in policy, something that would immediately enthuse enough voters to make a difference. China, for better of for worse, scarcely looms large in the consciousness of the average Indian.

The fourth issue, however, is one that everyone in India thinks about all the time: the economy. Prices and taxes are, of course, familiar grumbles. But now voters are also starting to ask questions about the basic infrastructure, the roads, the power situation, and the like. A massive power outage sent all of northern Indian plunging into darkness on January 2, underlining just how bad the situation really is.

This is the cumulative effect of 50 years of neglect. I am not sure how, if at all, any government can ease the situation in a few months. Nor is it clear how, especially given the jitters in the American markets, how the Indian economy can export its way out of trouble. It will be a miracle if the government can pull it off.

Nevertheless, and I come back again to the major point, the Congress leader believes that it is possible. And it is this, what Sonia Gandhi thinks, that will drive the Congress party's reactions.

Fifth, and finally, the Congress boss thinks that there is now a realistic chance of Ottavio Quattrocchi being brought back to India. Once on Indian territory, he shall face trial for his involvement in the Bofors pay-off case. In that case, he would be under considerable pressure to tell everything that he knows.

Once all these five have come to fruition, Sonia Gandhi conjectures that the prime minister will call for fresh polls, followed by the Bharatiya Janata Party improving its position. I will not debate the validity of each point just now, but it does throw up two interesting facts.

First, no matter what opinion polls may say, the Congress leader believes that the government is actually doing a good job. Second, it throws an interesting light on Sonia Gandhi's thinking, that she believes that what is good for India is not necessarily beneficial for her party!

I have my doubts about any agreement with Pakistan, and I am sure that my counterparts across the border are equally sceptical about India. But what if the leadership in both countries is able to reach out? Surely that is a goal well worth the effort!

The same holds true for China. If blood and money have been thrown away on the icy heights of Siachen, have there been no losses on the Tibetan border? There is some speculation that China and Russia have come to terms in the face of overwhelming American power. India should not join any such informal pact, but friendship with the United States does not mean enmity with China. (By the way, the people most annoyed with Li Peng's visit aren't the Americans, but the Indian Leftists!)

As for the economy, the government wants to focus on infrastructure water, power, roads, and communications. The effects, it is calculated, should start to become visible as soon as the middle of 2002. I agree with the Congress and CPI-M's assessment on this one; if the government can pull off an economic recovery it will be a definite vote-winner.

Sadly, the Opposition parties have decided on a wrong-headed path: they will not cooperate with the government even on national issues lest it make the Vajpayee administration look good. That is short-sighted and paranoid, but that appears to be the Congress leadership's decision.

So cry as much as you like, you Congressmen in Kerala and West Bengal; Sonia Gandhi won't support any call for President's rule!

T V R Shenoy