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Another quake unlikely in Gujarat, says expert

An earthquake of magnitude equal to Gujarat's tremors is not likely to recur in the state struck by the calamity, an expert from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, has said.

Normally, a major earthquake releases the energy, stress and strain built up in the earth's crust, and hence there is no likelihood of the recurrence of another high-magnitude quake till another such build-up, said Prof M N Kulkarni, a member of the national programme for Global Positioning System studies.

Prof Kulkarni would lead a team of experts, comprising researchers from the IIT as also two members from the Colorado State University, USA, to Bhuj next week to study and collect data - with millimetre accuracy -- on estimated crustal deformations and the consequent changes in baseline length and coordinators in Bhuj.

The data, combined with that of other seismological surveys, could help in giving a fair idea on the intensity and timeframe of future earthquakes.

The national GPS programme, aimed at improving on existing science and technology to predict the time and magnitude of quakes, is being implemented by the Centre's science and technology department in collaboration with an international GPS programme. It was launched after the 1993 Latur earthquake which claimed about 11,000 lives. A collaborative group would be formed for such programme in Bhuj also, he said.

Noted seismologist Vinod Kumar Gaur and two others from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, a unit of the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research, are being involved in the Bhuj GPS programme.

UNI

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