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Possibility of Indo-Pak war receding, say experts

Shahid K Abbas in New Delhi

With Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee toning the war rhetoric on Thursday saying 'I hope that lightening will not strike', the possibility of an all out war between India and Pakistan has receded.

"There is absolutely no possibility of a full fledged war between India and Pakistan as there is an operational imbalance between the two countries, with Pakistan lagging far behind," Bharat Karnad of Centre For Policy Research said.

When asked if the possibility of a war was remote because of the US control over some of the Pakistani airbases, Karnad said the US controlled the west and northwestern sector in Pakistan but an Indo-Pak war, if at all, would be a 'slugging affair on the ground'.

Contrary to Karnad, Major General (retd) Ashok Kishen of Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies said, "Either cross-border terrorism stops or we will have war."

Asserting that the media needs to pinpoint the dynamics of cross-border terrorism and how the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence was organising it, Kishen insisted: "You can't go on pulverising the world because you have nuclear weapons."

Saying that more than 60,000 people have lost their lives in the proxy war waged by Pakistan while 3 million people have been displaced, Kishen wondered how the development of the state was possible.

Professor Kanti Bajpai of the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi said, "Of course they (India and Pakistan) cannot go to war under the threat of a nuclear umbrella. Once a war escalates then you never know what shape it would take. Even a conventional war could be very expensive, while there could be very heavy casualties on both sides."

"India's superiority is not all that great given the fact that its forces are divided on different fronts... the cost of spare parts and fuel expenses are prohibitive. It (war) would also effect the climate of investment," he said.

Apprehending an economic doom in the event of the two nations going to war, Deputy Director of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis C Uday Bhaskar said, "No country can afford a war in a purely economic sense. More so India and Pakistan who are already dealing with severe economic challenges."

Bhaskar said, "While Pakistan currently is deeply in debt, India also has a number of urgent economic issues that would make the option of getting into a war not a very favourable one."

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