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'Congress gains strength only in AP'
''Andhra Pradesh seems to be the only state in the country where a pro-Congress shift has been witnessed.''
If this is music to Congress president Sitaram Kesri's ears, his joy would be shortlived as this may not bring the party more Lok Sabha seats -- it bagged 22 of the 42 seats in the state in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, winning 39.7 per cent of the votes.
Eating into the Congress's vote bank, the Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to increase its tally of votes -- it bagged 9.6 per cent in 1996 -- by five percentage points, reveals an opinion poll conducted by the Centre for Media Studies.
Two factors seem to have helped the saffron brigade -- the party has been making inroads in urban areas and its slogan 'one vote two states', promising a separate Telangana state, has found some takers in the region.
Though the BJP may get more votes, a seat would elude the party, says CMS chairman, Dr N Bhaskara Rao. The party did not win a single seat though it contested 39 seats in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections.
In such a scenario, where both the BJP and the Congress get more votes but will not increase their seat tally, who stands to gain? Obviously, the Telugu Desam, says Rao.
''The BJP would eat into the Congress votes, helping the Telugu Desam in the process,'' he says. ''This does not mean the Telugu Desam is becoming more and more popular. In fact, its percentage of votes may show a slump. As a result, Naidu may not get more Lok Sabha seats -- his party had 16 in the 11th Lok Sabha and it polled 32.6 per cent of the votes -- unless he puts up candidates with spotless record.''
Is it a reflection Naidu's performance? Are the people not convinced about his 'good work', despite the media's rave reviews? ''The contradiction in Andhra Pradesh is that, had it been an assembly election, the voters would give him all-out support but not in the current Lok Sabha poll.''
The survey has indicated that Naidu's image has not suffered at all. Nor has the 'incumbency' factor affected him, says Rao.
Another significant finding of the opinion poll is that a majority of the Telugus endorse Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu's decision against seeking a role in the national politics. ''Two-thirds of the voters in the state are against Naidu becoming prime minister after the Lok Sabha elections,'' he says.
As for the late Telugu Desam founder N T Rama Rao's widow Lakshmi Parvati, the study has shown that she has become 'inconsequential'. The situation will not improve despite her ties with the BJP, says Rao.
EARLIER REPORT:
'The fate of the Congress appears to be sealed'
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