The Rediff Special / J N Dixit
We should respond to Nawaz Sharif positively, but without any expectation of achieving tangible results
Pakistan's new prime minister will take office on Monday, as soon as he returns
from the Haj. Nawaz Sharief has spoken of his willingness to improve Indo-Pakistan
relations. Former foreign secretary J N Dixit, who will contribute a regular column
on international affairs to Rediff On The NeT, checks out the portents for
peace in South Asia.
Nawaz Sharif assumes the prime ministership of Pakistan after
having won a landslide majority in the recent elections. Though
his party has garnered the majority of seats in the national assembly
as well as in the provincial assemblies, one point to be remembered
is that only 25 to 30 per cent of the voters in Pakistan voted
in the elections and it is only a majority of this segment of
the voters who brought Nawaz Sharif into power.
So despite his
overwhelming legislative majority, his claim about having had
a genuinely massive mandate from the Pakistani people can be questioned.
What is of particular relevance to us in India is that he has
given initial indications that he wants to resume the dialogue
with us for normalising relations. We should, of course, respond
positively but without any expectation of achieving tangible results
in the foreseeable future. The limited aim can only be to restore
a minimal atmosphere of normalcy between India and Pakistan.
Nawaz Sharif's major challenge in his second tenure as prime minister
would be to establish a working equilibrium with the president
and the armed forces. This would limit his freedom to exercise
the options which he has in mind in foreign and economic policies.
It is in this context that one must examine the implications of
the Pakistani armed forces high command assuming a supra-governmental
role as members of the Council for Defence and National Security
which was created by President Leghari just before the elections.
It would be pertinent to examine the ramifications of the establishment
of this council.
The creation of the CDNS
confirms the axiom on socio-political behavioural patterns
that power gravitates in any society to its most cohesive and
disciplined segment. Leghari had given clear indications that
he plans to give the Pakistani armed forces a formal institutional
role in governance from early December 1996 onwards. He explained
that this was necessary for Pakistan because of the internal ferments,
the inefficiency of the civil institutions, and the corruption
permeating political processes in Pakistan.
Leghari announced
the creation of the CDNS,
which is to consist of the president, the prime minister, the
three service chiefs, the defence minister, the foreign minister
and the home minister.
In terms of the substantive chemistry of power equations, the
three service chiefs assuming a more formal role in the management
of the Pakistani polity is nothing new. The armed forces chiefs
were in any case the most important constituent of the troika
which formed the power centre in Pakistan, namely, the president
the prime minister and the three service chiefs led by the chief
of the army staff. What is significant now is the institutional formalisation
of the role of the armed forces in the government of Pakistan.
This could evolve and get confirmed into a constitutional role.
I make this assessment in the context of another development in
Pakistan which coincided with the creation of the CDNS. The Supreme
Court of Pakistan upheld
the validity of the 8th Amendment to the Pakistani constitution
which vests the president of Pakistan with the power of unilaterally
dismissing an elected prime minister if, in the president's assessment,
the prime minister's continuation in office affects Pakistan's
effective governance, stability or security.
Leghari's decision to create the CDNS fundamentally
changes the constitutional characteristics of the Pakistani state
and the power equations in Pakistani politics. The Pakistan army's
previous covert and periodical role as the arbiter of Pakistan's
political destiny now stands transformed as a legitimised permanent
reality.
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