Congress, Janata Dal split in UP; Advantage Kalyan
Sharat Pradhan in Lucknow
The political confusion in Uttar Pradesh became worse confounded on Monday, when the Congress and Janata Dal in the state split down the middle.
Both the breakaway factions have, what's more, come out in open support of Kalyan Singh and his Bharatiya Janata Party government in -- in the nick of time, say political analysts, as Singh is slated to face a trial of strength in the UP assembly on Tuesday.
Nineteen of the 37 Congress MLAs in the state led by deputy leader of the Congress
Legislature Party Naresh Agarwal have formed an independent
group under the banner of the UP Loktantrik Congress, and has been duly recognised as a separate group by assembly Speaker Kesri Nath Tripathi, under the provisions of the 10th schedule of the Constitution.
Apart from Agarwal, other members of the breakaway group are Jagdambika Pal, Diwakar Vikram,
Mandaleshwar, Laxmi Narayan, Hari Shankar Tewari, Sangram Singh,
Saraswati Pratap Singh, Satish Sharma, Dalbir Singh, Behari Lal
Arya, Vinod Kumar Singh, P Singh Bundela, Gangabaksh Singh,
Veerendra Singh, Vinay Pandey, Rakesh Tyagi, Fateh Bahadur Singh
and Shyam Sunder Singh.
Three of the seven Janata Dal MLAs led by Raja Ram Pandey formed a separate group on Monday evening and announced their decision to support the Kalyan Singh government. Speaker Tripathi has recognised the group as the Janata Dal (Raja Ram Pandey group).
"Since the formation of the groups did not in any way
violate the provisions of the anti-defection law, I have formally recognised them
as separate parties in the state assembly," Speaker Tripathi said.
The Congress and Janata Dal splits and more to the point, the recognition of the breakaway groups as political entities has come as a shot in the arm to Kalyan Singh and to state BJP chief Rajnath Singh. Both leaders had been waxing confident about Tuesday's trial of strength following the withdrawal of support by Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. However, the sheer reality of numbers made mock of that confidence -- thus, unexpected support from the breakaway Congress and Janata Dal factions have come like a blood transfusion to a government dying the death of a thousand cuts.
For the Congress, the split has come as a huge blow. More so because party boss Sitaram Kesri, in a bid to revitalise the party unit in the state, had recently nominated veteran leader Narain Dutt Tewari to lead the Congress in the state.
Tewari rushed to Delhi on Sunday evening in a bid to fight the sudden political fire, but as today's split indicates, he did not succeed.
The worse blow, however, will be felt by Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party. Sources say that it was Mulayam Singh, convinced that the BJP was going to fall flat on its face following the BSP's withdrawal of support, who had convinced Governor Romesh Bhandari to ask Kalyan Singh to seek a vote of confidence on the floor of the assembly.
Mulayam Singh apparently planned the sort of comeuppance that Atal Bihari Vajpayee had suffered in the Lok Sabha, when his 13-day government failed to prove a majority. However, it looks increasingly likely that it is Mulayam Singh himself who could come away from UP with political egg on his face.
More, Mulayam Singh is understood to have been planning a coup of sorts. Once Kalyan Singh's government fell, the Samajwadi Party would, according to sources close to the defence minister, put in its own bid to form the government in its capacity as the second single largest
party. And given that Kesri has a soft corner for the SP leader, it was expected that Mulayam Singh would swing it in his party's favour.
That dream is now dust.
The best indication that the BJP's leaky boat has now been shored up comes, in fact, from within the party. When the BSP announced its withdrawal of support, critics of both Kalyan Singh and Rajnath Singh launched a whisper campaign against the senior leaders, accusing them of "unnecessarily provoking Mayawati
by their uncalled-for utterances and actions."
This lobby, headed by Kalyan's own ministers Kalraj Mishra and Lalji Tandon, both of whom are perceived to be close to Mayawati, had in fact kept away from meetings addressed by Kalyan Singh and Rajnath
Singh on Sunday, in a bid to rally the party. In fact, Mishra, despite the crisis facing the government, did not even bother to return from an official tour of interior UP.
Thus, while Kalyan Singh and Rajnath Singh frantically hit their calculators to figure out the numbers game, Mishra and Tandon were, behind the scenes, negotiating with the BSP leadership. The formula put forward by this lobby involved the BSP continuing to support the BJP government, provided Kalyan Singh was deposed as chief minister and Mishra installed in the top slot.
A pliant Kalraj being more acceptable to Mayawati than the tough and uncompromising Kalyan, it was believed in political circles that this compromise formula would actually be forced on the BJP high command.
Immediately after news of the Congress split spread in UP political circles, the Mishra-Tandon faction faded into the background -- as clear an indication as any that Kalyan Singh would seem to have turned this particular political corner.
Meanwhile, political circles believe the split in the Congress will have the further effect of encouraging
smaller political groups, particularly the Bharatiya Kisan Kamgar
Party headed by Ajit Singh, to switch loyalties to the BJP. BJP chief Rajnath
Singh in fact hinted that he would not be surprised if a chunk of BSP MLAs also joined the general exodus. "A few BSP MLAs have been in touch with us," Singh said.
Meanwhile, of the 13 independents in the state assembly, the BJP has enlisted the support of seven,
which takes the party's effective strength to 206. This means that between now and Tuesday morning, Kalyan Singh needs to find just 7 more warm bodies to gain an absolute
majority in the 425-member House.
Governor Romesh Bhandari meanwhile has
appointed three observers for Tuesday's special session
of the state assembly. According to a Raj Bhavan spokesman, one of the observers
will be an official of the Assembly secretariat.
The spokesman said that a lobby division, rather than a voice vote, will be the procedure for the crucial vote of confidence. Legislators will be asked to sign a register in the lobby indicating their choice; this will prevent fraud and impersonation.
The spokesman said the governor, using his powers under Article
175(2) of the Constitution, has sent a communication to Speaker Tripathi to the effect that there would only be the one subject on the agenda at Tuesday's session.
The assembly, as per the governor's fiat, said the assembly would not be
adjourned till the division was completed on the confidence
resolution. Further, said the spokesman, the Governor would proceed against the Speaker in case of failure to adhere to any and all of these specifications.
Meanwhile in Delhi, Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral has
delayed his departure for France, Germany and the United Kingdom in view of the political
developments in UP. Gujral, who was supposed to leave Delhi at 0830 hours on Tuesday morning, has now "tentatively rescheduled" his trip for 1800 hours the same evening.
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