The US cotton export this year depends on how much cotton India will have on hand to export and how much import quota is issued by China, a top American cotton business executive has said.
"In 2007, India exported 6.9 million bales, and was by far the largest competitor for US cotton," Allenberg Cotton Company chief executive Joe Nicosia said in his address to the Cotton Roundtable in New York.
However, in 2008, US exports were helped by the fact that India had removed its cotton from the marketplace, he said, according to South East Farm Press.
"If not for that, US exports for 2008 would have been millions of bales less, and our carryout today would be approaching 10 million bales," he said.
"However, those bales still exist and we have to be careful. As prices start to recover, when we reach a point where we free these bales from the reserve programmes in India, US exports could take a very large dive," Nicosia said.
"India is an aggressive exporter now that prices have risen back above 60 cents, he said. "If cotton prices were to drop to below 60 cents, these agencies in India will choose not to sell their cotton. They don't want to lose money," Nicosia was quoted saying by The South East Farm Press.
"However, should prices go down in 2010-11, Indian cotton is removed from the marketplace and US exports will continue to increase," Nicosia said
Besides India, China is another determining factor for US cotton export.
"In 2008-09, China issued only 4.1 million bales of tariff rate quota (for imports of cotton) required under the WTO. Recently, they issued another 1.8 million bales of quota, "which will be bought by mills in the upcoming months," he said.
