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Rediff.com  » Business » Asia may face food scarcity by 2050

Asia may face food scarcity by 2050

Source: PTI
August 19, 2009 15:53 IST
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It's official! As many as 209 districts across the country are witnessing drought or drought-like situation even as rainfall deficiency slightly improved to 27 per cent.

Agriculture secretary T Nanda Kumar, after pronouncing this discouraging statistics, said the GDP of the country would not be affected significantly because of poor monsoon as the share of agriculture in the overall economic growth stands at only around 18 per cent.

The official, however, admitted that the role of the farm sector is of prime importance to build food security for the country.

Painting a scary picture, a United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation study has also warned that many developing Asian nations would have to import cereals to meet their food requirements, which is expected to double by 2050.

These countries could face the "politically risky" prospect of food shortage unless there are major reforms in water management for agriculture in the region.

A study of irrigation in Asia conducted by FAO and the International Water Management Institute has concluded that water reform is urgently needed in the region to feed an extra "1.5 billion people by 2050".

"... without major reforms and innovations in the way water is used for agriculture, many developing nations face the politically risky prospect of having to import more than a quarter of the rice, wheat and maize they will need by 2050," the report said.

According to the study, funded by the Asian Development Bank, there would be 1.5 billion more people living in Asia by 2050, as the region's populations rises to five billion.

"Asia's food and feed demand is expected to double by 2050. Relying on trade to meet a large part of this demand will impose a huge and politically untenable burden on the economies of many developing countries.

"The best bet for Asia lies in revitalising its vast irrigation system, which accounts for 70 per cent of the world's total irrigated land," IWMI director general Colin Chartres said.

To meet the food needs of Asia's population by 2050, the report has suggested the options of importing large quantities of cereals from other regions; improving and expanding rainfed agriculture and focussing on irrigation demands.

Titled 'Revitalising Asia's Irrigation: To sustainably meet tomorrow's food needs', the study said Asian nations has to urgently boost productivity from existing farmlands.

Going by present trends of yield growths, there would have to be an increase of 30 per cent the amount of irrigated land farmland in South Asia and 47 per cent in East Asia, to meet the cereal demand by 2050.

The study said that South Asia as a whole uses about 250 cubic kilometres of groundwater annually, accounting for almost half the world's total groundwater use.

"Making these existing irrigation systems work more efficiently and, where possible, investing in new irrigation infrastructure, will be critical for meeting future food demands".

However, the study noted that the task would not be easy since the region's natural water resources are already stretched and climate change is likely to bring greater variability in rainfall and runoff, generating uncertainty.

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