Poor rains could affect farm GDP growth

Poor rainfall in rain-dependent central and southern India in the next three weeks could affect agricultural GDP growth in the coming season, a report by broking firm Motilal Oswal has said.

Though the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the south-west monsoon to cover the entire country by the middle of July and central Indian region within a week, lower than projected rainfall in this region during the coming fortnight could result in lower acreage and poorer yields of crops like paddy, coarse cereals, pulses and other non-food crops like sugarcane, cotton and oilseeds, the report said.

According to D S Pai, Director, Office of Additional Director General of Meteorology (Research), the IMD expects good monsoon showers in central India in the next two to three weeks.

In its second-stage release, IMD had reduced the south-west monsoon forecast for 2009 (June to September) from 96 per cent to 93 per cent.

"Though the forecasts by some global agencies indicate higher probability of lower rainfall, IMD believes that their studies are not India-focussed," the report said.

IMD data revealed that the overall rainfall for the week ending June 24, 2009, was 64 per cent lower than normal while cumulative rainfall for the season (June1-24, 2009) was 54 per cent lower than normal, the report said.