Most of the world's major economies are now close to the low point of their slowdowns, in a sign that the global recession is easing, according to data published on Monday.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reported that a "possible trough" had been reached in April for its monthly analysis of forward-looking indicators in advanced economies.
The composite leading indicators index for the 30 countries in the OECD rose 0.5 points in April, the second monthly rise in a row, although it remains 8.3 points lower than April 2008. The index seeks to identify turning points in the cycle about six months in advance.
The Paris-based international organisation said that its overall measure of the more developed economies who are its members - ranging from the Euro area and the UK to the US, Mexico and Japan - now pointed to "recovery" instead of the "strong slowdown" they had been suffering since last August.
"It is still too early to assess whether it is a temporary or a more durable turning point," the OECD said. But the data "point to a reduced pace of deterioration in most of the OECD economies with stronger signals of a possible trough in Canada, France, Italy and the United Kingdom."
Twenty-two out of the 30 OECD countries are now seeing a rise in forward-looking measures of activity. The US saw its first improvement in the outlook since July 2007, while Germany and Japan - both among the worst hit economies in the developed world - saw an improvement in their outlook for the first time since early last year.
China has seen a "possible trough" but India, Brazil and Russia are still facing a sharp slowdown, the OECD said.
The OECD measure is based on data such as share price moves, inventory levels and consumer and business confidence in its member nations that are thought to lead the economic cycle.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
