The Rs 21,000 crore (Rs 210 billion) media industry, which experienced a negative growth in the first half of 2009, is expected to grow by 65 per cent in the July-December period, a review on the industry said.
"Our detailed forecast for the July-December period shows that while the media industry earned only Rs 7,452 crore (Rs 74.52 billion)in the first-half, we estimate the industry to net Rs 12,325 crore (Rs 123.25 billion) in the second-half," Madison Media chairman Sam Balsara said.
Balsara released a mid-term review of Pitch Madison Media Advertising Outlook 2009.
"This will be a massive 65 per cent jump over the first-half," Balsara said, adding that the jump would be driven by a combination of increase in ad rates and an increase in ad volumes.
The media industry garnered just Rs 7,452 crore (Rs 74.52 billion) in the first half of 2009, which was a whopping Rs 1,414 crore (14.14 billion)less than what it mopped up in the same period last year, the review said.
Though the impact of a looming drought remains very alive, on the macro-front there are many positive signs with the economy showing clear signs of pulling out of the morass, the review said.
While all leading corporate houses have reported better-than-expected profits in the April-June quarter, the latest IIP data came as a big surprise, posting a stupendous 7.8 per cent growth in June, it said.
"All these lead us to believe that the next six months are going to be much better than the first six-months," Balsara said.
"It seems the worst is over for the industry. Its time the media industry gets ready for better times. But it will pay to remain sober in the months ahead," exchange4media Group chairman and editor-in-chief Anurag Batra said.
But, on an aggregate basis, even this massive increase in revenues in the July-December period would not pull the full year estimate out of the red, the review said.
"Going by our revised numbers, we expect a negative growth of 5 per cent for the full year, against a positive growth 2 per cent we forecast in January. As a result, the industry is projected to close the calendar year 2009 with Rs 19,777 crore (Rs 197.77 billion) against Rs 20,717 crore (Rs 207.17 billion) in 2008," exchange4media group co-founder and editor Pitch magazine, Amit Agnihotri, said.
For the past five-years and until the third-quarter of 2008, the advertising and media industry was growing at a furious pace, averaging around 17-18 percent year-on-year, it said.
"In 2004, the industry grew by 11 per cent, 15 per cent in 2005, and a full 22 per cent each in 2006 and 2007. Last year, it grew by a smart 17 per cent," the review said.
As per the mid-term review, the worst affected in the first-half of 2009 was the print media which saw a massive 32 per cent decline in its revenue mop-up.
"The television saw a 19 per cent drop, with cinema and outdoor getting hit heavily at 37 per cent and 30 per cent respectively," the review said.
However, there was only a moderate 5 per cent decline in radio revenue, it said, adding that the Internet media is the only media format that recorded a growth during the first-half logging a 16 per cent growth rate.
