4. Realistic expectations: The bagel and the doughnut
These two different kinds of baked goods symbolize the two distinctively different elements of stock market returns. It is hardly farfetched to consider that investment return - dividend yields and earnings growth - is the bagel of the stock market, for the investment return on stocks reflects their underlying character: nutritious, crusty and hard-boiled.
By the same token, speculative return - wrought by any change in the price that investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings - is the spongy doughnut of the market, reflecting changing public opinion about stock valuations, from the soft sweetness of optimism to the acid sourness of pessimism.
The substantive bagel-like economics of investing are almost inevitably productive, but the flaky, doughnut-like emotions of investors are anything but steady - sometimes productive, sometimes counterproductive.
In the long run, it is investment return that rules the day. In the past 40 years, the speculative return on stocks has been zero, with the annual investment return of 11.2 per cent precisely equal to the stock market's total return of 11.2 per cent per year.
But in the first 20 of those years, investors were sour on the economy's prospects, and a tumbling price-earnings ratio provided a speculative return of minus 4.6 per cent per year, reducing the nutritious annual investment return of 12.1 per cent to a market return of just 7.5 per cent.
From 1981 to 2001, however, the outlook sweetened, and a soaring P/E ratio produced a sugary 5 per cent speculative boost to the investment return of 10.3 per cent.
Result: The market return leaped to 15.3 per cent - double the return of the prior two decades.
The lesson: Enjoy the bagel's healthy nutrients, and don't count on the doughnut's sweetness to enhance them.
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