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China's growth may slow down: World Bank

Last updated on: June 18, 2010 18:15 IST

China's growth may slow down: World Bank

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China's economy has seen a robust growth despite the recession. However, a World Bank reports says the country has shown signs of "some softening" that could slow down the pace of growth slightly in 2011.

Despite concerns about fiscal risks in some high income countries, the global growth outlook remains favourable because of the strength in emerging markets. Nonetheless, risks around the global forecast are large.

The World Bank projects global GDP to expand between 2.9 and 3.3 percent in 2010 and 2011, strengthening to between 3.2 and 3.5 percent in 2012, reversing the 2.1 percent decline in 2009.

According to the report, while the impact of the European debt crisis has so far been contained, it has the real potential to derail global growth.

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Image: China grows.
Photographs: Courtesy, Shanghai World Expo.
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Developing economies are expected to grow between 5.7 and 6.2 percent each year from 2010-2012.

High-income countries, however, are projected to grow by between 2.1 and 2.3 percent in 2010 - not enough to undo the 3.3 percent contraction in 2009 - followed by between 1.9 and 2.4 percent growth in 2011.

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Image: Bank of America.

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China's growth may slow down: World Bank

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Almost half of the rise in global demand in 2010-2012 will come from developing countries.

While the better performance of developing countries in today's world of multipolar growth is reassuring, for the rebound to endure, high-income countries need to seize opportunities offered by stronger growth in developing regions, the World Bank states.

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Image: Children play as the monsoon clouds cover the sky in Ahmedabad.
Photographs: Amit Dave/Reuters.
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In China, after a rapid start to 2010, growth is likely to ease, mainly because of a partial normalisation of the macro policy stance and the property measures, the report said.

The World Bank projects the GDP growth of 9.5 percent for 2010 as a whole, and 8.5 percent for 2011, with risks both ways.

The growth should be less investment-driven this year and benefit from more favourable external trade. Consumption is likely to remain supported by a strong labor market. The external surplus should decline somewhat further this year.

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Image: An employee counts yuan banknotes at a branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
Photographs: Reuters.
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Inflation is likely to remain contained this year by the absence of price pressures globally while a wage-price spiral is not likely. China's economic outlook remains favourable, according to the World Bank.

Moreover, further reforms are needed to ensure economic growth remains sustainable socially and with regard to energy and the environment, the report said.


Image: Reuters.

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