If anyone can pick a certain winner in the Asia Cup final, then they do not know cricket.
Both teams are going along nicely at the moment. India on paper has the better team, but the Sri Lankans play so well at the Premadasa, mainly because the pitch suits their bowling and because of the home crowd support. The match will have a full house, but there will be a huge group of Indian supporters, so it will not be one way.
One problem for the tournament organisers is that rain is forecast for the match.
Let us have a look at the SWAT analysis for both teams.
INDIA
Let us first have a look at India's performances in finals since October 2000. Played in 11 finals: Won 1; Lost 8; Shared 2.
A look at India's top batsmen in the finals:
- Rahul Dravid: 9 innings, avg: 29.2
- Sourav Ganguly: 10 innings, avg: 29.1
- Virender Sehwag: 11 innings, avg: 25.9
- Sachin Tendulkar: 10 innings, avg: 21.8
- Yuvraj Singh: 10 innings, avg: 16.8
Only one 100, six fifties, and as many as 11 ducks have been made in 11 games by Indian batsmen!
With the bat, India has made 2,039 runs at an average of 21.2 runs per wicket, while their opponents have scored 3,060 runs at an average of 52.8 per wicket.
With the ball, India has taken 56 wickets at 57 apiece and an economy rate of 5.9 runs per over. Their opponents have taken 85 wickets at 25 apiece at 4.6 runs per over.
These statistics, for me, tell it all. India is no doubt good enough to win major tournaments, but I feel their anxiety and arousal levels just go over the top. The coaching staff are no doubt fully aware of this and will have to stop this cancer, or 'big game-itis', or this trend will continue.
It is very hard to stop this trend, but when you play in finals you must think it is just another game. One Indian batsman must go on to make a big score if they want to win this one. I hope the Indian batsmen, once settled, have the hunger that's required and are aware of their responsibility to go on to make big scores.
Tactically, India must go after the Big 3: Jayasuriya, Muralitharan and Vaas. India must employ a deep backward square leg to Sanath Jayasuriya instead of a fine leg. Keep the ball up and straight and make him hit it to mid-on and mid-off.
The Indian batsmen must attack Chaminda Vaas right from the first ball. I would ask all batsmen to bat at least 5 feet down the pitch and whip everything to leg. I think the batsmen should sweep Murali as much as they can, as Jayasuriya did to all the Indian bowlers on Tuesday. What a knock that was!
I would bring V V S Laxman in for Parthiv Patel and play the two spinners. Sehwag and Tendulkar are doing very well as the fifth bowler.
SRI LANKA
STRENGTHS: They love playing at the Premadasa. This team knows the pitches, the angles, and the depths fielders should be at throughout a match. The batting is strong knowing that India have only three match-winning bowlers instead of four.
The Sri Lankan bowlers are well suited to this match. I am very impressed with young Ferveez Maharoof. He is a beauty. He hits the pitch and keeps the pressure on all the senior Indian batsmen.
WEAKNESSES: The last match versus India was a beauty, but apart from Jayasuriya, no other batsmen did that well.
Psychologically I hope that loss will not affect them. Sri Lanka by no means had their best team for that game and with Vaas and Murali back they will step up a gear.
TACTICS: Win the toss and BAT! Make over 280 and I do not think India are travelling well enough to make more than that.
All in all, this match is fit for a big final. Finals are rarely won by some brilliant display by an individual. Normally they are won by the opposition making too many mistakes and their inability to stick to the team plan when under pressure.
Winning teams tend to relax early in big games and enjoy the occasion. Losing teams find stupid, silly things to distract them early. For any team to win a major match or final, it has to expect that the senior players will be among its best performers of the day.
I am going for a Sri Lankan win here because the home conditions suit the home team. I would love to see India win as well as I believe they are the only contenders to beat Australia in the next World Cup at this stage and will need a win here to prove it to themselves... which is only half the battle.
But my prediction is that Sri Lanka will win in a close match. Nuwan Zoysa will win the Man of the Match and follow up with the Man of the Series. If India win it, then Tendulkar will be the man for me to win it for them. If he does, he will pick up the car for the Man of the Series. What a problem he will have when he has to drive the car home from Sri Lanka. I hope it comes with oars!
Previous column: India's seniors have to stand up
Bob Woolmer's column: Sri Lanka seem to really want the Asia Cup
