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The Rediff Special/Admiral J G Nadkarni (retired)

All the nuclear missiles are not worth a hydrogen atom if they do not lead to less defence spending and more economic development

Whatever the political or domestic reasons for the BJP government to flex India's nuclear muscle, the result has been the restoration of a modicum of self confidence and pride in every Indian within and without the country. At least for the next few days every citizen of this country will walk with a bit of spring in his step and an inflated chest.

God knows, there was little to be proud of in these past few years. A sagging and stagnant economy, political squabbles, a breakdown in law and order and perpetual security problems on the border had resulted in a defeatist and demoralised population. There was little to brag about in sports. A nation of 900 million could not win even one medal in the Olympics. The once formidable Indian hockey team was not even sure of qualifying for the games. In cricket we began to be ranked with Zimbabwe and Kenya.

Internationally, India became a nonentity to be ignored by the big powers and treated by disdain by the nouveau rich Asian nations. Countries like Singapore and Malaysia began to preach to India. Aided and abetted by China and the United States, Pakistan began to equate itself with India and to make threatening gestures.

The nuclear tests have changed all that. In one stroke the government has changed the country's international image of a spineless prevaricating muddler and restored its lost self respect. How the Congress and the Janata Dal must be kicking themselves for not thinking of this during their days in power! Not that there was a lack of opportunity.

In fact, 1974 itself was the correct time for a logical continuation of India's nuclear programme. China had placed in position her missile aimed at India in 1968. There was perfect justification for a nuclear weapons programme. The world reaction would have been milder and by now India would have been accepted as one of the nuclear-have nations. By our dithering "nuclear energy for peaceful purposes" policy we have lost 24 precious years without gratitude or thanks from a single nation.

Possibly 1998 is the watershed year. The Indian cricket team is witnessing a resurgence. Vishwanathan Anand is inching upwards to become the world champion. Paes and Bhupathi are doing wonders on the tennis circuit. Indian beauties are winning world titles with monotonous regularity. The nuclear demonstration is one more step towards the process.

Of course the restoration of a country's pride cannot always be done cheaply. India must be prepared to pay a price. In 1981 when Reagan came to power, America too was a demoralised country, still suffering from the after-effects of the Vietnam war and the Iran hostages fiasco. Reagan cut taxes, increased the defence budget, started the Star Wars programme, called the Soviet Union an 'evil empire' and ran up a foreign debt of $ 300 billion. But he did restore national pride, the cornerstone on which American industry and economy witnessed a resurgence in the '90s.

There are bound to be economic sanctions. But they cannot be very harsh nor very long. More like a schoolmaster wagging a finger at a normally well-behaved boy. The fact that President Clinton is still coming to India shows that the world will soon come to terms with what it has long expected.

Economic sanctions are a small price to pay for the restoration of national morale. Self confident people can achieve far more and withstand economic hardships.

The nuclear explosions have, of course, achieved far more than the restoration of pride. It has eliminated or at least reduced the chance of a war with Pakistan due to miscalculation. A surprising amount of conflicts are caused due to an underestimation of the enemy's capabilities and a misreading of his intentions. By its nuclear demonstration India has removed any doubts that might have existed about its capabilities. Both India's capability to stage nuclear and thermo-nuclear detonations as well as its delivery systems like Agni and Prithvi have now been demonstrated to the world at large.

Any threats India cares to make are now more valid, being backed by a demonstrated capability. Unfortunately the ambiguity about Pakistan's nuclear capability still remains which could lead to underestimation and miscalculation by India. With our newly-found self confidence, India could even go so far as to encourage Pakistan to conduct a nuclear test of its own. Once an unambiguous nuclear deterrence is in place, both sides could get down to the business of bringing about a lasting peace in the subcontinent.

The demonstration of India's nuclear competence will be of little use if it does not lead to the next logical step. Ironically, the Indian demonstration and Pakistan's firing of the Ghauri missile earlier has brought the chances of peace between the two countries nearer. For the first time, it is possible to think and talk about capping the defence budgets and a mutual reduction of conventional forces. All the nuclear missiles are not worth a hydrogen atom if they do not lead to less defence spending and more economic development.

The pride and euphoria will not last long. Eventually the strength of India will depend on her economic performance. The real pride will come when the rupee regains its strength. When Indian rupees will be as sought after as the dollar or the DM. When India is in a position to give aid and enforce economic sanctions on others. When India will be invited at select international gatherings to debate the economy.

By conducting the nuclear tests the government has created the first requirement of an economic resurgence, high morale and self confidence in the population. It has also created conditions for a secure and stable security environment, an umbrella under which the economy can progress.

The government can wallow in self congratulations and the public euphoria for only a short time. Shortly, it will have to think of the next step. Of how to capitalise on its tour de force. The government can now negotiate with Pakistan from a position of strength to avoid an arms race and to reduce defence expenditure. It will be in the interest of both countries to make development, and not defence, their mantra for the next century.

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