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Battle for Jaffna lingers on

N Sathiya Moorthy in Chennai

With the battle for Jaffna town entering the third week, questions are now being raised on the longevity of the engagement, with various sources speculating distinct courses. While one side says that it's only a matter of time before the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) recaptures the town, others say that a Tiger victory, if it came to that, would not be that easy.

"It's only a matter of time before the LTTE recaptures Jaffna," said a Sri Lankan Tamil source. "Their morale is high and they also have field guns and other artillery left behind by a demoralised Sri Lankan Army, which is on the run. This additional weapons and high morale could make a difference."

However, other sources say that the LTTE's initial thrust has produced results, but it will not be that easy in this round of battle for Jaffna. "So far, they were fighting from the cover of jungles, which also protected them from air attacks. For taking Jaffna, they will have to come out in the open and fight from the plains, and will thus be susceptible to Lankan air attacks."

While conceding the low morale of the Lankan forces and the high rate of desertion from its ranks (put at 20 per cent), these sources, however, point out that the battle for Elephant Pass, crucial to maintaining links with Jaffna, was won by the Tigers, more through strategy than firepower. "You should grant LTTE chief V Prabhakaran and his team their strategic skills," said this source, pointing out how the Tigers had cut off water supply to the Lankan troops, thus forcing them to withdraw. Even those left behind for destroying the weaponry were found to have died, mainly of dehydration."

"We do not know what other similar ace Prabhakaran may have up his sleeve in this battle for Jaffna," said the source. "However, things may prove difficult for the LTTE if the Lankan forces regroup and open a front in Vanni and another in Batticaloa. The LTTE may not have enough men to spare for such battles, if it came to that, but the Lankan command too seems confused to try out something like that."

If the battle for Jaffna becomes long-drawn, it may become difficult for the troops and LTTE to ensure civilian peace. "The troops in the town will start suspecting every Tamil civilian as a potential LTTE suicide bomber out to destroy Army positions or supply lines. Likewise, the Tigers may try out the human wall strategy all over again."

If the wave of civilian refugees has not started moving towards India thus far, it's mainly because of the Lankan Navy presence in the islets jutting across Jaffna peninsula, and also for want of boats. As he points out, the trickle of refugees from Sri Lanka originates at Thalaimannar, and land in Rameswaram or thereabouts.

"If the LTTE recaptures Jaffna, the Navy may also withdraw. It will be then that the refugee influx may start, particularly families of non-LTTE militants wanting to get out of Jaffna. Then, the Jaffna-Vedaranyam coastal route may be open to a refugee influx, and there could be nothing much that India could do, given the human aspect in particular."

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