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Lanka, LTTE step up diplomatic battle before final showdown

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam gave a 12-hour notice for civilians to vacate Jaffna before the final assault on the town. Around the same time, Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga offered the chief ministership of the Northeastern province to LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran, offering to hold direct talks with him if he returns to the negotiating table.

Between these two lines lies a matching war of diplomacy and tact before both sides embark on the final battle. And it relates to who should take the blame for the woes facing the 500,000 civilian population of Jaffna town, including feared casualties, should a showdown become inevitable.

"Neither side wants to be blamed in world capitals for the woes of the civilians, and are moving with tact," said an informed source in Madras. "In this, the Sri Lankan government seems to have shown greater tact, for once, after letting the LTTE walk away with the media war that's being fought on the sidelines."

According to this source, the situation on the ground may be different from what the LTTE has been claiming, even as the battle for Jaffna enters its fourth week. "But the LTTE's media blitz of the early days gave the impression that Jaffna had fallen for all practical purposes. Against this, Colombo's reaction was muted and confused. Now they seem to have geared up, and are playing their cards better."

Indications are that Kumaratunga's well-timed offer for peace and power-sharing with Prabhakaran is meant to shift the blame for the inevitable civilian casualties to the Tigers. "By declaring her willingness to make Prabhakaran chief minister even when he is an outlaw, Kumaratunga seems to be addressing moderate Tamil opinion and civilian population over the LTTE's head, as she had done once earlier while coming to power five years ago. This time too, she wants the LTTE to take the blame for the war. But it's another matter whether the civilian Tamil mood is in her favour, after the bitter experiences of the past."

For its part, the LTTE seemed to be waging a psychological war on the Sri Lankan masses as much as a military campaign against government forces. "They want to capitalise on the low morale and consequent high desertion rate in the Sri Lankan forces. Hence the media campaign about Jaffna's imminent recapture. By asking the troops to surrender, the LTTE made it look as if the soldiers were fighting for a lost cause. Now with the offer of a ceasefire for the Tamils to vacate Jaffna, they have fallen back on an old tactic, employed before they first captured the town nine years ago, not wanting to take the blame for the civilian woes."

The Sri Lankan government, however, seems to be playing for the medium and long term, hoping that an LTTE siege of Jaffna, if defended for long, as happened the last time round, would frustrate the Tamil civilians, who would be forced into the jungles and India.

By asking Prabhakaran for direct talks, Kumaratunga has another strategic aim, the source claimed. "For one thing, the Colombo government and all those who have dealt with different layers of LTTE leaders and negotiators at different times seem to conclude that Prabhakaran doesn't always heed his advisers. For any promise on the LTTE's side to stick, it has to come from Prabhakaran, and he should also be made aware of the nitty-gritty of negotiations and their implications," said the source.

There may be another angle to it, he added. "Given the security threat Prabhakaran faces, Colombo wants to see him come out of his jungle hideout, which he keeps changing. There can be no meaning for a negotiated settlement unless Prabhakaran feels confident of leading a civilian life in a democratic process."

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