NEWSLINKS
US EDITION
COLUMNISTS
DIARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
THE STATES
ELECTIONS
ARCHIVES

Search the Internet          Tips

Recent Columns

Towards an unwinnable      war The cost of      confrontation Trial by the media Unworthy selections Where have the      leaders gone?

Towards an unwinnable war

There are many similarities in the present situation between Israel and the Palestinians and that confronting India and Pakistan. The basic question in both cases is this: can two ethnic and religiously diverse neighbours live in peace or are they doomed to perpetual conflict?

Israel, a Jewish country, is surrounded by Arab, predominantly Muslim, countries. It has had to fight for its existence since the very day it was created and has fought a number of wars with its neighbours.

In the past it has worked out a number of agreements with some of its one-time adversaries, but the main problem with the people of Palestine remains. It faces daily acts of terrorism within its borders, acts brought upon by a frustrated but defiant Palestinian population who are still, after 50 years, looking for their own place in the sun.

The solution revolves around the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip since 1967 and the fate of the holy city of Jerusalem.

India and Pakistan were also created around the same time and have been in conflict since day one. They have fought three wars in the past 50 years and appear destined to fight many more. It is, in fact, a clash of two cultures. The conflict ostensibly is about the state of Jammu and Kashmir, which has been not only the scene of the wars but is also now the arena for acts of militancy and terrorism from across the border.

Unfortunately, the similarity ends there. First, Israel is militarily far more powerful than her Arab neighbours. Israel has soundly defeated these nations in all their military conflicts since 1949. In fact, after the war of 1967 Israel seized the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, the first from Egypt and the other from Jordan. It has also held on to the Golan Heights seized from Syria. Its punitive acts are today carried out against Palestine, which is totally defenceless.

Secondly, ever since its creation, Israel has had the total overt and covert support of the United States and some of the European nations. It is thus able to carry out its policy of massive retaliation for the acts of terror knowing fully well that in the final analysis America will support it both militarily and politically. No American president will dare take any drastic action against Israel and displease the strong Jewish lobby in the US.

In return Israel is only too happy to do America's bidding when necessary, such as bombing the Iraqi nuclear facilities. Unlike Israel, India faces an adversary in the west who is militarily strong. In fact, the Indian Army has only marginal superiority over the Pakistan Army on the western border.

Most of the people who are itching for the Indian Army to attack are thinking of our victory in 1971. But there, 14 Indian divisions took on 3 Pakistani divisions, which were without support, miles away from their homes and fighting in a hostile environment.

On the other hand, both in 1965 and 1971, both armies fought to a standstill on the western front, each advancing a few miles here and there.

Proponents of a military reply to the acts of terrorism might do well to keep these facts in mind. Unfortunately, high rhetoric and jingoistic speeches have raised the people's thirst for revenge to such a fever pitch that sense and pragmatism has gone out of the window. Any call for sanity is today bound to elicit a response asking the speaker to go wear bangles, that standard macho cliché.

To many, including military experts, Israel today is the role model. They would like the Indian Army to make limited strikes, foray into Pakistan and destroy the training camps of the terrorists. They might well remember that despite Israel's brutal response to terrorist acts, the incursions into Ramallah and other West Bank towns, the large-scale killings at Jenin and the house arrest of Yasser Arafat, the acts of terrorism continue. There are reports that a number of Palestinian suicide bombers are waiting in the queue for the opportunity to go to heaven.

Will a sovereign nation like Pakistan sit by and watch idly if an Indian punitive force crosses the border? It is a sure signal pointing towards a full-scale war between the two countries. In fact, India will be a major loser if it resorts to any military misadventure.

First, unlike 1971, India lacks sympathy and international support for its cause. The United States has much more at stake in Pakistan today and is hardly likely to look upon an Indian attack at this inopportune time with favour. India's cozying up with Israel these past few years has lost it support among the oil-producing countries of West Asia. Whatever goodwill India had in the world community has dissipated subsequent to the happenings in Gujarat.

Secondly, a full-scale war between the neighbours will immediately attract international intervention, an act that India will certainly not want. It will also be the excuse to attract embargoes, which we can ill afford with the present state of our economy. An embargo by some of the oil-producing countries is sure to bring the conflict to a speedy end.

Thirdly, there is the nuclear question. Some of the defence and other experts are keen to "call their bluff". Well, we called their bluff once with disastrous results. Even so we tend to live in a world of make-believe. Until 1998, our scientists were assuring us that Pakistan was 10 years behind us in nuclear technology although their leaders were repeatedly telling us that they had a nuclear device. Within a month of our nuclear explosions the other side had shown us theirs. Now we want to call their bluff again despite the fact that General Musharraf himself has stated that he will use nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances.

A recent report by an impartial reporter comparing the nuclear delivery systems and weapons of the two countries came to the conclusion that Pakistan had an edge over India in both the accuracy and quality of delivery systems.

Our leaders, both political and military, assure us that "we are fully ready" for a nuclear war. Really. And pray what defence might that be? A plan to evacuate the top leadership to safe underground bunkers does not constitute a defence against nuclear attack.

Thus a cool appreciation of the present situation is bound to come to the conclusion that a military response to terrorist attacks will only lead to disaster and economic ruin for both countries. Unfortunately, times are not conducive to a pragmatic approach to the problem, which can only come if the leaders stop the bombast and do some cool thinking. They should not become victims of their own rhetoric.

Unfortunately, relations between India and Pakistan have a momentum and logic of their own. They wait for no reason and listen to no logic. In the fashion of a Greek tragedy they inevitably spiral down the hill towards ruin.

ALSO READ:
Terrorism in J&K: The complete coverage

Admiral (retd) J G Nadkarni